Behavioural investing : a practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance / James Montier.
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Published: |
Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ :
John Wiley & Sons,
c2007.
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Main Author: | |
Series: | Wiley finance series
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Format: | Book |
Table of Contents:
- Sect. I. Common Mistakes and Basic Biases
- 1. Emotion, Neuroscience and Investing: Investors as Dopamine Addicts
- Spock or McCoy?
- The Primary of Emotion
- Self-Control is Like a Muscle
- Hard-Wired for the Short Term
- Hard-Wired to Herd
- Plasticity as Salvation
- 2. Part Man, Part Donkey
- The Biases We Face
- Bias #1: I Know Better, Because I Know More
- Bias #2: Big [is not equal to] Important
- Bias #3: Show Me What I Want to See
- Bias #4: Heads was Skill, Tails was Bad Luck
- Bias #5: I Knew it all Along
- Bias #6: The Irrelevant has Value as Input
- Bias #7: I Can Make a Judgement Based on What it Looks Like
- Bias #8: That's Not the Way I Remember it
- Bias #9: If you Tell Me it Is So, It Must be True
- Bias #10: A Loss Isn't a Loss Until I Take It
- 3. Take a Walk on the Wild Side
- Impact Bias
- Empathy Gaps
- Combating the Biases
- 4. Brain Damage, Addicts and Pigeons
- 5. What Do Secretaries' Dustbins and the Da Vinci Code have in Common?
- 6. The Limits to Learning
- Self-Attribution Bias: Heads is Skill, Tails is Bad Luck
- Hindsight Bias: I Knew it All Along
- Skinner's Pigeons
- Illusion of Control
- Feedback Distortion
- Sect. II. The Professionals and the Biases
- 7. Behaving Badly
- The Test
- The Results
- Overoptimism
- Confirmatory Bias
- Representativeness
- The Cognitive Reflection Task (CRT)
- Anchoring
- Keynes's beauty contest
- Monty Hall Problem
- Sect. III. The Seven Sins of Fund Management
- 8. A Behavioural Critique
- Sin city
- Alternative Approaches and Future Directions
- Sin 1: Forecasting (Pride)
- 9. The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore all Economists, Strategists, & Analysts
- Overconfidence as a Driver of Poor Forecasting
- Overconfidence and Experts
- Why Forecast When the Evidence Shows You Can't?
- Why Use Forecasts?
- Debasing
- 10. What Value Analysts?
- Sin 2: Illusion of Knowledge (Gluttony)
- 11. The Illusion of Knowledge or Is More Information Better Information?
- Sin 3: Meeting Companies (Lust)
- 12. Why Waste Your Time Listening to Company Management?
- Managers are Just as Biased as the Rest of Us
- Confirmatory Bias and Biased Assimilation
- Obedience to Authority
- Truth or Lie?
- Sin 4: Thinking You Can Outsmart Everyone Else (Envy)
- 13. Who's a Pretty Boy Then? Or Beauty Contests, Rationality and Greater Fools
- Background
- The Game
- The Solution
- The Results
- A Simple Model of Our Contest
- Comparison with Other Experiments
- Learning
- Sin 5: Short Time Horizons and Overtrading (Avarice)
- 14. ADHD, Time Horizons and Underperformance
- Sin 6: Believing Everything You Read (Sloth)
- 15. The Story is The Thing (or The Allure of Growth)
- 16. Scepticism is Rare or (Descartes vs Spinoza)
- Cartesian Systems
- Spinozan Systems
- Libraries
- A Testing Structure
- The Empirical Evidence
- Strategies to Counteract Naive Belief
- Sin 7: Group Decisions (Wrath)
- 17. Are Two Heads Better Than One?
- Beating the Biases
- Sect. IV. Investment Process as Behavioural Defence
- 18. The Tao of Investing
- Pt. A. The Behavioral Investor
- 19. Come Out of the Closet (or, Show Me the Alpha)
- The Alpha
- The Evolution of the Mutual Fund Industry
- Characteristics of the Funds
- 20. Strange Brew
- The Long Run
- The Short Run
- Break the Long-Only Constraint
- Add Breadth
- Not Just an Excuse for Hedge Funds
- Truly Alternative Investments
- 21. Contrarian or Conformist?
- 22. Painting by Numbers: An Ode to Quant
- Neurosis or Psychosis?
- Brain Damage Detection
- University Admissions
- Criminal Recidivism
- Bordeaux Wine
- Purchasing Managers
- Meta-Analysis
- The Good News
- So Why Not Quant?
- 23. The Perfect Value Investor
- Trait I: High Concentration In Portfolios
- Trait II: They Don't Need to Know Everything, and Don't Get Caught in the Noise
- Trait III: A Willingness to Hold Cash
- Trait IV: Long Time Horizons
- Trait V: An Acceptance of Bad Years
- Trait VI: Prepared to Close Funds
- 24. A Blast from the Past
- The Unheeded Words of Keynes and Graham
- 25. Why Not Value? The Behavioural Stumbling Blocks
- Knowledge [is not equal to] Behaviour
- Loss Aversion
- Delayed Gratification and Hard-Wiring for the Short Term
- Social Pain and the Herding Habit
- Poor Stories
- Overconfidence
- Fun
- No, Honestly I Will Be Good
- Pt. B. The Empirical Evidence: Value in All Its Forms
- 26. Bargain Hunter (or It Offers Me Protection) / James Montier and Rui Antunes
- The Methodology
- Does Value Work?
- The Anatomy of Value
- The Siren of Growth
- Growth Doesn't Mean Ignoring Valuation
- The Disappointing Reality of Growth
- Analyst Accuracy?
- Value versus Growth
- Key points
- Regional Tables
- 27. Better Value (or The Dean Was Right!) / James Montier and Rui Antunes
- 28. The Little Note that Beats the Market / James Montier and Sebastian Lancetti
- The Methodology and the Data
- The Results
- Quality Matters for Value
- Career Defence as an Investment Strategy
- What About the Long/Short View?
- The Future for the Little Book
- Tables and Figures
- 29. Improving Returns Using Inside Information
- Patience is a Virtue
- Using Inside Information
- A Hedge Perspective
- Risk or Mispricing?
- Evidence for Behavioural Errors
- Evidence Against the Risk View
- European Evidence
- 30. Just a Little Patience: Part I
- 31. Just a Little Patience: Part II / James Montier and Sebastian Lancetti
- Value Perspective
- Growth Perspective
- Growth and Momentum
- Value for Growth Investors
- Value and Momentum
- Implications
- 32. Sectors, Value and Momentum
- Value
- Momentum
- Sectors: Value or Growth
- Stocks or Sectors
- 33. Sector-Relative Factors Works Best / James Montier and Andrew Lapthorne
- Methodology
- The Results
- 34. Cheap Countries Outperform
- Strategy by Strategy Information
- Pt. C. Risk, But Not as We Know It
- 35. CAPM is CRAP (or, The Dead Parrot Lives!)
- A Brief History of Time
- CAPM in Practice
- Why Does CAPM Fail?
- CAPM Today and Implications
- 36. Risk Managers or Risk Maniacs?
- 37. Risk: Finance's Favourite Four-Letter Word
- The Psychology of Risk
- Risk in Performance Measurement
- Risk from an Investment Perspective
- Sect. V. Bubbles and Behaviour
- 38. The Anatomy of a Bubble
- Displacement
- Credit Creation
- Euphoria
- Critical Stage/Financial Distress
- Revulsion
- 39. De-bubbling: Alpha Generation
- Bubbles in the Laboratory
- Bubbles in the Field
- Displacement: The Birth of a Boom
- Credit Creation: Nurturing the Boom
- Euphoria
- Critical Stage/Financial Distress
- Revulsion
- Applications
- Alpha Generation
- Long-Only Funds
- 40. Running with the Devil: A Cynical Bubble
- The Main Types of Bubble
- Psychology of Bubbles
- Composite Bubbles and the De-Bubbling Process
- Experimental Evidence: Bubble Echoes
- Market Dynamics and the Investment Dangers of Near Rational Bubbles
- 41. Bubble Echoes: The Empirical Evidence
- Sect. VI. Investment Myth Busters
- 42. Belief Bias and the Zen Investing
- Belief Bias and the X-System
- Confidence Isn't a Proxy for Accuracy
- Belief Bias and the Zen of Investing
- 43. Dividends Do Matter
- 44. Dividends, Repurchases, Earnings and the Coming Slowdown
- 45. Return of the Robber Barons
- 46. The Purgatory of Low Returns
- 47. How Important is the Cycle?
- 48. Have We Really Learnt So Little?
- 49. Some Random Musings on Alternative Assets
- Hedge Funds
- Commodities
- Which Index?
- Composition of Commodity Futures Returns
- The Times They are A-Changin'
- Sect. VII. Corporate Governance and Ethics
- 50. Abu Ghraib: Lesson from Behavioural Finance and for Corporate Governance
- Fundamental Attribution Error
- Zimbardo's Prison Experiment
- Milgram: The Man that Shocked the World
- Conditions that Turn Good People Bad
- 51. Doing the Right Thing or the Psychology of Ethics
- The Ethical Blindspot
- The Origins of Moral Judgements
- Examples of Bounded Ethicality and Unconscious Biases
- Mechanisms Driving Poor Ethical Behaviour
- Combating Unethical Behaviour
- 52. Unintended Consequences and Choking under Pressure: The Psychology of Incentives
- Evidence from the Laboratory
- Evidence from the Field
- Back to the Laboratory
- Who is Likely to Crack Under Pressure?
- Sect. VIII. Happiness
- 53. If It Makes You Happy
- Top 10
- 54. Materialism and the Pursuit of Happiness
- Aspiration Index
- Materialism and Happiness: The Evidence
- Problems of Materialism
- What to Do?
- Why Experiences Over Possessions?